CHAPTER WISE SUMMARY Macroeconomic Policy in India Since the Global Financial Crisis - Trends, Policies and Challenges in Economic Revival Post-COVID
Research & Publication (Institutions and Governance)
Slowdown and Crisis in the Indian Economy - A Study of the Macroeconomic Developments between the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Crisis (2011-12 to 2019-20)
Working Paper No1, 2020 /Goa Institute of Management, Panaji In this paper we bring out the performance of the Indian economy and review the approach of macroeconomic policy especially demand management in the Indian economy. After the shock of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), India&r
The COVID-19 Crisis in India - Impact, Response and Recovery
The situation prior to the COVID, as brought out in Morris, Sebastian (2020), was problematic with major slowdown and heightened uncertainty in the financial sector in the last year before the Crisis. The response of the RBI, free from its conservative shackles, now followed the US into expanding
Does GST (Goods and Services Tax) in India Hurt Producing Regions? A New Estimate of the Tax Base Under GST of Select States
GST as introduced in India being a destination based tax, does not encourage regions to vigorously promote manufacturing and tradable services industries. Being in the midst of its economic transformation, and given the subnational character of most states (regions), it is important that the stat
Impact of the Proposed GST on the Consumer Price Index in India
Fears that the movement to GST would add to inflation have been unfounded. In this study we ex-ante estimate the impact the movement to GST would have on inflation and show that it would be very marginal at best. The inflation argument to have multiple rates is therefore weak. The impact on the C
Steering the Macroeconomy With a Broken Compass and Stuck Rudder?
In this paper we bring together the findings of Subramanian, A. (2019) and Morris and Kumari (2019), and others to claim that the problems with the new national income series are real and need to be addressed. The CPI11-12 too is problematic since the weight of basic food in the CPI11-12 is as hi
Foreign Direct Investments from India 1964-1983 (Doctoral Dissertation /Thesis of the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta)
Foreign direct investments from India, although not exactly a recent phenomenon, has attracted the attention of scholars only in the recent past. Nevertheless a fairly substantial literature has emerged on the phenomenon of foreign direct investments (FDI) from the LDCs. The published literature
The Error in the CPI, Which Precludes It Use in Inflation Targeting
The Error in the CPI, Which Precludes It Use in Inflation Targeting I examine the trends in the CPI and the core part of the CPI to bring out a grievous error in the core CPI. The core in certain years shows a jump of as much as 7% in certain quarters due to the e
Financing Green and Brownfield Private Infrastructure in India
Approaches that recognize the specific kind of market failure/s, in the policy and design of infrastructure, greatly reduce the financing costs and improve the ability of to attract finance in the private provisioning of infrastructure. This is particularly so in the case where there are dual mar
Estimating the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version April 1, 2020)
Abstract Using a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths it would soon become possible to give estimates to the final numbers of cases and deaths that are likely on account of COVID19, for countries which have gone through about 60+ days since the first cases were recorded. Su
Real Estate and Infrastructure Resolution
We propose a mechanism that uses the financial markets to mobilize the resources of a large population of investors, to revive the impaired assets in the real sector in India today. This should also allow the economy to escape from the strangle hold of the “doom loop”, in which
The Problem of Financing Private Infrastructure in India Today
Optimal approaches that recognize the specific kind of market failure/s, in the policy and design of infrastructure, greatly reduce the financing costs and improves the ability of to attract finance in the private provisioning of infrastructure. When state systems are weak organizationally it is
Issues In Water Rights, Institutional Design And Pricing That Need Resolution
This paper briefly outlines the core issues that need resolution before water development, especially by the private sector, and efficient usage can take place. These water rights ought to be defined more functionally in order to include tradability. There is a need t
Container Movement By Rail In India: A Review Of Policy Evolution
Container movement by rail was a monopoly of Indian Railways (IR) until 2005. Its subsidiary Container Corporation (CONCOR) was the sole operator of container trains. Entry of other entities in 2007 has been driven by larger public policy concerns. In the process, issue
Economic Growth In Gujarat In Relation To The Nation And Other States In Recent Times: A Statistical Analysis
Growth rates of regions (states) have generally followed the national level growth rates over time with small lags or leads. There is much coherence between the aggregate performance of regions over time and that of the nation, so that the periodization at the nationa
Container Train Operations: Introducing Competition (A)
In May 2005, the Committee on Infrastructure took a decision that Ministry of Railways, in consultation with Planning Commission, would prepare a policy for permitting private and public sector operators to run container trains through the Indian Railways (IR) network
Container Train Operations: Introducing Competition (B)
In October 2005, the representatives of the Planning Commission, Ministry of Railways, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, and Ministry of Shipping met to discuss the RITES recommendations to work towards framing a policy document for running container trains by private
Structuring PPPs In Aviation Sector: Case Of Delhi And Mumbai Airport Privatization
The concession agreement for the modernization and operation of Indira Gandhi International airport in Delhi and Chhatrapati Shivaji International airport in Mumbai respectively is referred to as Operation Management and Development Agreement (OMDA). The OMDA was a pa
Issues In Real Estate And Urban Management: A Note
The Real Estate sector has become a very important growth sector after the liberalisation of the economy; it is the second largest employer in India, next only to agriculture, and it accounts for about 5% of the country’s GDP. The sector has significant linkages
Introducing Competition in Container Movement by Rail
The Minister of Railways, in his budget speech on 26th February, 2005, had announced that the Ministry of Railways (MoR) and the Government of India would permit private operators to run container trains. Before then, a subsidiary of the Indian Railways, Container Cor
The Emphasis On PPP Model Is In The Right Direction
The large budgetary support in general of plan and investment should bring cheers to the producers, investors and financers of infrastructural equipment and services on roads, urban services and power equipment. Given the large rises on doles under the NREGA, Bharat N
Land Markets In India: Distortions And Issues
There are certain inherent problems with land because of its peculiar characteristics, which impede the natural emergence of a well-functioning market. The legal and regulatory framework can potentially overcome these problems. In India, despite some reform efforts, t
Electricity Reforms and Regulations: A Critical Review of Last 10 Years Experience
Following liberalisation and reform of the economy in 1991-92, the electricity sector also witnessed major policy and regulatory initiatives. The sector, while it was growing rapidly in the eighties, faced issues of a debilitating and serious nature. Losses, especiall
Missing Issues In The Debate On Reservation
This paper addresses the issue of reservation, as arising out of educational and social backwardness of the Other Backward Classes (OBC). Except in nomenclature there is no substantial evidence to show that most or even the majority of the ‘jatis’ that con
Towards Reform Of Land Acquisition Framework In India
The paper brings out the fundamental as well as the more important problems with the current framework of land acquisition in India, regulations on land and the functioning of land markets. It argues that reform is overdue and the current framework would be unsustaina
Small-Scale Industries In The Age Of Liberalization
This paper highlights the small firms’ crucial and seminal role in India; it arises out of both the late industrialization and the particular historical experience of industrialization that has contributed to the evolution of the industrial structure. Analyzing
Small And Medium Enterprise In India - Overcoming Policy Constraints To Achieving Rapid Growth In A Globalizing Economy
The transformation of firms and especially Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which have little autonomous capacity is a function of growth oriented policies. Lacking a very rapid growth in the market sufficient to overcome disguised unemployment, the transformation
A Small Step Towards Growing Out Of The Mess In Electricity Supply
Growth in the electricity sector had been stalled ever since 1994 on account of reforms (unbundling for its own sake and the IPP policy) that were technically unsound and designed to fail. This was because they did not address the real problem that of revenue interrup
Rural Infrastructure Needs A Fillip
The article evaluates the scope of rural development in India. It demonstrates that the Indian states weaknesses in cross-functional policy design and in coordination across departments and functions is the obvious cause of lack of rural development, and urges to reco
Efficient Subsidisation Of LPG: A Study Of Possible Options In India Today
The paper holds a discussion on the announcement contained in the budget that the central government would actively explore the option of using an appropriate form of the ‘food stamps’ or an alternative scheme to improve the efficacy and reduce the cost of
SPVs No Solution To Infrastructure Woes
The article suggests that there is no financial side constraint on infrastructure in India at present. With a well developed financial market, it is only the lack of good bankable projects that is the limitation, and there is no way another Special Purpose Vehicle (SP
Some Key Issues In Policy, Pricing, Regulation, And Financing Of Irrigation Development In India Today
The paper discusses the stylised problems relating to water and irrigation in India and argues that most of the inefficiencies, misuse and environmental damage have their roots in the mispricing of water and electricity. Since the only kind of subsidies thus far
Understanding Export Led Growth And Late Industrialisation To Explain The Differences In The Post Reform Performance Of India And China
Both India and China began to reform in the early eighties, with the Indian reforms being very slow until 1991-92 after which they 'take-off'. While there are many differences the crucial difference is that China adopted the same Export Led Growth (ELG) policies of th
Infrastructure Development and Strategy for Gujarat
The phenomenon of foreign direct investments (FDI) from India is substantial and systematic enough to warrant attention. In this empirical study; the pattern and nature of control exercised by the Indian parents, local parties, and possible transnational capital and l
A Study Of The Regional Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investments In India, And The Case Of Gujarat
The paper discusses the determinants of FDI over the regions of a large economy like India, using the framework drawn from the advantage concept of Kindleberger and from location theories rooted in regional science. It specifically uses Stephen Hymer's understanding o
Privatisation Today: A Discussion
The paper holds a discussion on the prospects of Privatization in India today. It suggests that privatization as such is no longer an issue in the country. The issue today is how best to carry the process forward and the priorities for privatization. It highlights tha
The Beginnings Of Distribution Reforms In West Madhya Pradesh: A Report
Despite opening up the sector to private participation through independent power producers (IPPs), the actual progress of reforms in electricity has been atrociously slow. The unbundling of the industry by trifurcating the SEB and allowing private participation in the
Performance And Market Valuation Of The Public Sector Today
This chapter looks at the performance and market valuation of the Public Sector in India. Few studies on performance of PSUs are correct with regard to their methodology. These studies show that the performance of PSUs, for the most part, has been woefully below that
Commercial Aircraft Industry And Governments
This paper deals with the evaluation of the civil aeronautics sectors since the 1930s in the background of Government intervention & technological changes. The paper has tried to contrast the active interference by European nations in the domestic aviation sector
Expenditure Accountability in India: The Interlinkages
The chapter brings out the nature of public expenditure accountability in India especially at the federal level. The perversities - large role for off budget items, the process that leads to expanding expenditures with little functional but much procedural control, ar
Public Investments in India: Delays and Cost Overruns
Public Investments in India have witnessed large delays and cost overruns. The same are estimated and shown to continue to be large, even though they have declined despite many changes in economic policy. What has brought about change in efficiency of overall investme
Comments On The Draft Electricity Bill 2001
The paper comments upon the Draft Electricity Bill of 2001. Given than the reform of the power sector had made little headway, there is much concern that something needs to be done. Little progress has been made in the Bill, so that most of the comments made then rema
The Challenge of Governance of India Today
This chapter attempts to delineate the possible role of governance oriented reform in India today. It raises conceptual and historical difficulties with the notion that sees governance failure as the cause of poor economic performance and discusses why there are certa
India Infrastructure Report 2002: Overview
Second in the series, this report lays bare the policy and organisational failures that have spawned poor governance in India. It argues that rather than viewing poor governance as a cause, it has been more an effect. Many of the vested interests of today have been cr
Societal Change, States And Governance: Insights From History And Other Societies
The nature of governance has differed widely across societies, and what is more interesting, within any particular society depending upon the stage of development. Governance is better defined in functional rather than in value terms. Functional governance aids and ab
The Growth And Transformation Of Small Firms In India
The book covers the growth and transformation of small industries in the nineties and before. It addresses policy issues and makes radical suggestions on how small industries can become the leading edge of India's competitiveness. Inter alia it covers the i
Explaining Foreign Direct Investments In Gujarat: A Study Based On An Opinion Survey Of Persons Involved In The Foreign Direct Investment Process
Gujarat has attracted more foreign direct investment (FDI) than what its GDP size alone would suggest. But relative to its peer states, it has fallen short significantly. The above findings which were made in an earlier study are further confirmed through a survey of
Restructuring Gujarat Electricity Board: Outline Of A Strategy And Proposal For Action
This paper argues that the GEB (Gujarat Electricity Board) needs to be restructured urgently. The principal challenge for restructuring is to overcome the major ‘agency problem’ that results in leakage of enormous revenue. Plugging the leakages alone would
India Infrastructure Report 2001: Overview
The first in the series, the book reviews infrastructure development since the reform of the Indian economy began in 1991, discussing the policies required to create an appropriate market structure for infrastructure provision along with its constraints as well as lay
Issues in Infrastructure Development Today: The Interlinkages
Today, infrastructure development is at a crucial juncture in India. Since only tentative steps have been taken towards a more pluralistic provisioning, especially by the private sector, the infrastructure as a whole has reached a point of irreversibility. It is no lo
Competition Policy In India: Issues For A Globalising Economy
Competition policy is essential for any economy in transition as it complements other liberalising initiatives. However, the scope, sequencing and timing of competition and other policies have to be determined by each economy according to its own compulsions and needs
GEB Reforms: A Note On Regulatory Strategy And An Approach To Privatisation
The paper makes a proposal for market competition in generation, through the development of a hybrid wholesale and retail (for bulk consumers alone) market. It is not a marker for all the electricity in the system, but largely a market that would allow distribution-cu
Infrastructure Development And Financing: Towards A Public-Private Partnership
This book initiated academic work in the area of private investment in infrastructure in India. Divided into five parts, the book contains eleven articles and thirteen case studies on power, telecom and transportation. In this book, infrastructure development and fina
Competition Policy In India
In India protection and controls are being replaced by a competitive and de-regulated open economic system. In the pre-reform era, various restraints to competition existed, which have now been relaxed. One key issue in the phase of transition is of ensuring and manag
Why are We Junking This Engine of Growth?
The Indian budget of 1991-92, though lauded by many, does not take complete advantage of the vast opportunities for fast growth. Since its presentation, the appreciation in the real as well as nominal value of the rupee has been taking place; the appreciation would ev
Agriculture: A Perspective From History, The Metrics Of Comparative Advantage, And Limitations Of The Market To Understand The Role Of State In A Globalising World
In this paper, Australian data on national and regional employment numbers is examined, with a focus on whether there have been common national and regional changes in the volatility of employment. A subsidiary objective is to assess whether the results derived from t
Political Economy Of Electric Power In India: Part 2
Since the cancellation of the Dabhol Power Project (DPP), the debate about electric power in India has come into the public view, raising hopes that corrective measures can be taken to have a cost effective and growing power industry. A critical examination of the rec
Political Economy Of Electric Power In India: Part 1
Since the cancellation of the Dabhol Power Project (DPP), the debate about electric power in India has come into the public view, raising hopes that corrective measures can be taken to have a cost effective and growing power industry. A critical examination of the rec
Some Issues In The Debate On Policy
Indian economy’s liberalization in the 90s can no more be seen as a response of the government to balance of payment crisis; the reforms of 1992-93 cannot be attributed to the pressure from the World Bank or the IMF. While the most of the Left intellectuals argu
Prospects For FDI And Multinational Activity In The 90s
The paper discusses the implications of trends and patterns in foreign direct investment and of policy and structural changes for foreign direct investment in India in the 90s. Though high economic growth in the 1980s combined with the liberal policies towards FDI int
Policy And The Problems Of Policy Change: Some Issues
During the eighties there have been stop-start attempts at liberalization and at policy change to give new direction to the economy which had been drifting ever since serious planning had been given up in the mid-sixties with the onset of the recession then. The perio
Cost And Time Overruns In Public Sector Projects
Delays and cost overruns in public sector investments can raise the capital-output ratio in the sector and elsewhere, bringing down the efficacy of investments. Yet there are no estimates of the delays and cost overruns, and of their opportunity cost. This study arriv
Blog (Institutions and Governance)
A Video Presentation : Will the Stimulus of Rs. "20 lakh crore" Work to Arrest the Economic Crisis? An Assessment
Will the Stimulus of Rs. “20 lakh crore” Work to Arrest the Economic Crisis? An Assessment
The Deepening Crisis of the Indian Economy
This VIDEO Presentation[from 15 minutes onwards] is preliminary to a working paper that I would soon be bringing out on a tragedy that is going
Macroeconomic Challenges Posed by the COVID19 in India
Massive intervention in the capital markets to greatly enhance liquidity and reduce the policy rates would be necessary. Otherwise the financial sector would tumble like nine pins. We suggest a rate cut by 1.5% and massive injection of liquidity well above the r
The Villainous Politician and Local Governance
Despite the intention to encourage and support local self government, the post independence period has witnessed continuous erosion in local governance of cities. Indeed, the decline in the quality of living (at least for the middle classes) in cities, can be directly
The Change Imperative
At the recently held conference on Building Infrastructure–Challenges and Opportunities at Vigyan Bhavan, the Prime Minister underscored the importance of infrastructure in India being able to sustain high growth, above 8%. What was remarkable
Dwelling On Delhi's Master Plan
The Delhi government would soon have to legislate to make special exemptions to Delhi’s Master Plan to override the Supreme Court’s (SC) order banning commercial activities in residential areas. Policy-makers and planner sitting in ivory towers
One-Sided Law On Land Acquisition
Delays and risks in land acquisition are the overwhelming retardants in infrastructural construction. The problems are widely believed to arise in politicking and poor governance, but it is important to understand the deeper reasons lying in the law
Rural Infrastructure Needs A Fillip
Rural development, especially infrastructural development, by its very nature is holistic. Therefore, it can neither be left to a ministry of rural development, which cannot think beyond sop programmes, nor to the uncoordinated working of departments, like roads, publ
Water And Sewerage: The Eco-Politics
Water, among all infrastructure services, has to be the state’s responsibility. If the state cannot arrange to provide for water in the cities and other habitats, then nothing else that it does or provides is meaningful. By that count, most of
Making Reform A Positive Sum Game
Lalu Prasad and his team have been laying out transition path to reform from the mess that Indian Railways were in, steps that would most certainly pay off. The genius in discovering hidden operating leverage and overcoming slack in increasing the loading of wagons, e
SPVs No Solution To Infrastructure Woes
When interest rates are determined through the market, there is only a limited role for development finance institutions (DFIs). In the era of controls, and where the state mobilised and directed (if not monopolised) much of the savings and resource
Restructuring The Oil Companies
Finally there is recognition that the public sector oil companies need to merge to allow them the size to be able to hold out against larger companies. All kinds of red herrings are being put forward and it is important that we do not get this wrong. We have already w
Bringing Back High Growth
With PC back again there is widespread hope that the economy can revive. But perhaps much more important is his view that interest rates can now come down. I and several others have been arguing that the monetary conservatism exhibited by the central bank has been one