CHAPTER WISE SUMMARY Macroeconomic Policy in India Since the Global Financial Crisis - Trends, Policies and Challenges in Economic Revival Post-COVID
Research & Publication (Growth and Development)
Slowdown and Crisis in the Indian Economy - A Study of the Macroeconomic Developments between the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Crisis (2011-12 to 2019-20)
Working Paper No1, 2020 /Goa Institute of Management, Panaji In this paper we bring out the performance of the Indian economy and review the approach of macroeconomic policy especially demand management in the Indian economy. After the shock of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), India&r
The COVID-19 Crisis in India - Impact, Response and Recovery
The situation prior to the COVID, as brought out in Morris, Sebastian (2020), was problematic with major slowdown and heightened uncertainty in the financial sector in the last year before the Crisis. The response of the RBI, free from its conservative shackles, now followed the US into expanding
Does GST (Goods and Services Tax) in India Hurt Producing Regions? A New Estimate of the Tax Base Under GST of Select States
GST as introduced in India being a destination based tax, does not encourage regions to vigorously promote manufacturing and tradable services industries. Being in the midst of its economic transformation, and given the subnational character of most states (regions), it is important that the stat
Impact of the Proposed GST on the Consumer Price Index in India
Fears that the movement to GST would add to inflation have been unfounded. In this study we ex-ante estimate the impact the movement to GST would have on inflation and show that it would be very marginal at best. The inflation argument to have multiple rates is therefore weak. The impact on the C
Steering the Macroeconomy With a Broken Compass and Stuck Rudder?
In this paper we bring together the findings of Subramanian, A. (2019) and Morris and Kumari (2019), and others to claim that the problems with the new national income series are real and need to be addressed. The CPI11-12 too is problematic since the weight of basic food in the CPI11-12 is as hi
Foreign Direct Investments from India 1964-1983 (Doctoral Dissertation /Thesis of the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta)
Foreign direct investments from India, although not exactly a recent phenomenon, has attracted the attention of scholars only in the recent past. Nevertheless a fairly substantial literature has emerged on the phenomenon of foreign direct investments (FDI) from the LDCs. The published literature
The Error in the CPI, Which Precludes It Use in Inflation Targeting
The Error in the CPI, Which Precludes It Use in Inflation Targeting I examine the trends in the CPI and the core part of the CPI to bring out a grievous error in the core CPI. The core in certain years shows a jump of as much as 7% in certain quarters due to the e
Financing Green and Brownfield Private Infrastructure in India
Approaches that recognize the specific kind of market failure/s, in the policy and design of infrastructure, greatly reduce the financing costs and improve the ability of to attract finance in the private provisioning of infrastructure. This is particularly so in the case where there are dual mar
Estimating the Likely Total Infections and Deaths Due to COVID19 in Select Countries (Version April 1, 2020)
Abstract Using a logistic model of cumulative cases and deaths it would soon become possible to give estimates to the final numbers of cases and deaths that are likely on account of COVID19, for countries which have gone through about 60+ days since the first cases were recorded. Su
The Problem of Financing Private Infrastructure in India Today
Optimal approaches that recognize the specific kind of market failure/s, in the policy and design of infrastructure, greatly reduce the financing costs and improves the ability of to attract finance in the private provisioning of infrastructure. When state systems are weak organizationally it is
The Way Out Of The Current Macroeconomic Mess: A Note
The current situation of a large Current Account Deficit (CAD), low growth, and plunging rupee is a result of the combination of early withdrawal from the fiscal stimulus and the RBI’s monetary conservatism. There is possibly a way out if credit can be expanded to close the differential bet
Economic Performance Of Gujarat In Recent Times
This paper reviews the growth and development of Gujarat, one of India's leading industrial states, and the reasons for its relatively high growth. It presents a synoptic review of the performance of the Gujarat economy since independence bringing out the underlying r
Economic Growth In Gujarat In Relation To The Nation And Other States In Recent Times: A Statistical Analysis
Growth rates of regions (states) have generally followed the national level growth rates over time with small lags or leads. There is much coherence between the aggregate performance of regions over time and that of the nation, so that the periodization at the nationa
Issues In Real Estate And Urban Management: A Note
The Real Estate sector has become a very important growth sector after the liberalisation of the economy; it is the second largest employer in India, next only to agriculture, and it accounts for about 5% of the country’s GDP. The sector has significant linkages
The Question Of Land And Infrastructure Development In India: Urgently Required Reforms For Fairness And Infrastructural Development
Land in India is problematic, largely because of archaic and perverse provisions in the practice and the law. The new Land Acquisition Amendment Bill does go some way to correct the anti-democratic and imperial provisions of the old 1894 Act. Other regulatory restrain
Small-Scale Industries In The Age Of Liberalization
This paper highlights the small firms’ crucial and seminal role in India; it arises out of both the late industrialization and the particular historical experience of industrialization that has contributed to the evolution of the industrial structure. Analyzing
Rural Infrastructure Needs A Fillip
The article evaluates the scope of rural development in India. It demonstrates that the Indian states weaknesses in cross-functional policy design and in coordination across departments and functions is the obvious cause of lack of rural development, and urges to reco
Understanding Export Led Growth And Late Industrialisation To Explain The Differences In The Post Reform Performance Of India And China
Both India and China began to reform in the early eighties, with the Indian reforms being very slow until 1991-92 after which they 'take-off'. While there are many differences the crucial difference is that China adopted the same Export Led Growth (ELG) policies of th
A Study Of The Regional Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investments In India, And The Case Of Gujarat
The paper discusses the determinants of FDI over the regions of a large economy like India, using the framework drawn from the advantage concept of Kindleberger and from location theories rooted in regional science. It specifically uses Stephen Hymer's understanding o
Performance And Market Valuation Of The Public Sector Today
This chapter looks at the performance and market valuation of the Public Sector in India. Few studies on performance of PSUs are correct with regard to their methodology. These studies show that the performance of PSUs, for the most part, has been woefully below that
The Growth And Transformation Of Small Firms In India
The book covers the growth and transformation of small industries in the nineties and before. It addresses policy issues and makes radical suggestions on how small industries can become the leading edge of India's competitiveness. Inter alia it covers the i
Constraints To Export Growth In The Small Firm Sector
This paper analyses exports from small firms and brings out the constraints in expansion and growth of the same. A large primary survey of over 1200 firms is used to bring out experiences of small firms. Small firms would have to have a major role in exports from Indi
Why Not Push for a 9 Per Cent Growth Rate?
One quite indisputable gain of the reform has been the increasing openness of the economy. The rise in the openness ratio began in the mid-1980s and accelerated in the 1990s, following the depreciation of the currency in 1990-91. However, the 1997-98 budget and the cu
Why are We Junking This Engine of Growth?
The Indian budget of 1991-92, though lauded by many, does not take complete advantage of the vast opportunities for fast growth. Since its presentation, the appreciation in the real as well as nominal value of the rupee has been taking place; the appreciation would ev
Agriculture: A Perspective From History, The Metrics Of Comparative Advantage, And Limitations Of The Market To Understand The Role Of State In A Globalising World
In this paper, Australian data on national and regional employment numbers is examined, with a focus on whether there have been common national and regional changes in the volatility of employment. A subsidiary objective is to assess whether the results derived from t
Political Economy Of Electric Power In India: Part 2
Since the cancellation of the Dabhol Power Project (DPP), the debate about electric power in India has come into the public view, raising hopes that corrective measures can be taken to have a cost effective and growing power industry. A critical examination of the rec
Political Economy Of Electric Power In India: Part 1
Since the cancellation of the Dabhol Power Project (DPP), the debate about electric power in India has come into the public view, raising hopes that corrective measures can be taken to have a cost effective and growing power industry. A critical examination of the rec
Some Issues In The Debate On Policy
Indian economy’s liberalization in the 90s can no more be seen as a response of the government to balance of payment crisis; the reforms of 1992-93 cannot be attributed to the pressure from the World Bank or the IMF. While the most of the Left intellectuals argu
Policy And The Problems Of Policy Change: Some Issues
During the eighties there have been stop-start attempts at liberalization and at policy change to give new direction to the economy which had been drifting ever since serious planning had been given up in the mid-sixties with the onset of the recession then. The perio
Blog (Growth and Development)
A Video Presentation : Will the Stimulus of Rs. "20 lakh crore" Work to Arrest the Economic Crisis? An Assessment
Will the Stimulus of Rs. “20 lakh crore” Work to Arrest the Economic Crisis? An Assessment
The Deepening Crisis of the Indian Economy
This VIDEO Presentation[from 15 minutes onwards] is preliminary to a working paper that I would soon be bringing out on a tragedy that is going
Macroeconomic Challenges Posed by the COVID19 in India
Massive intervention in the capital markets to greatly enhance liquidity and reduce the policy rates would be necessary. Otherwise the financial sector would tumble like nine pins. We suggest a rate cut by 1.5% and massive injection of liquidity well above the r
Comment on the Trade Policy
The announcements made by the Minister are most disappointing. When world trade demand has shrunk by over 9%, a restatement of developmental efforts that have been going on, very marginal and routine things like promise to reduce transactions costs were the only elements. There is no
Mismanaging National Assets
The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) now admits that the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) completion is going to be delayed and the cost overrun would be substantial. What it is not admitting is that its poor management of tolls and of the highw
Stemming The Hollowing Out Of Manufacturing
Monetary targeting, which is the RBI’s way, is quite unsuitable in today’s environment of vastly asymmetric growth and capital flows. The belief that money supply determines the inflation rate was never quite true in the linear fashion that seems to
Why Punish The Users Of National Highways?
Our cities are built with very low densities (floor space indices) means that they are unable to take on the correct spatial orientation of economic activities. This, of course, makes them socially expensive, and much more spread out than they need to be.
Bringing Back High Growth
With PC back again there is widespread hope that the economy can revive. But perhaps much more important is his view that interest rates can now come down. I and several others have been arguing that the monetary conservatism exhibited by the central bank has been one